{"id":1124,"date":"2018-04-23T18:29:26","date_gmt":"2018-04-23T10:29:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/damogame.cn:15443\/wordpress\/?p=1124"},"modified":"2018-12-27T17:05:15","modified_gmt":"2018-12-27T09:05:15","slug":"%e6%9d%a1%e4%bb%b6%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/archives\/1124","title":{"rendered":"\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n

\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/h1>\n

\u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n

\n
\u672c\u8bcd\u6761\u7531\u201c\u79d1\u666e\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u767e\u79d1\u79d1\u5b66\u8bcd\u6761\u7f16\u5199\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u5de5\u4f5c\u9879\u76ee<\/a>\u00a0\u5ba1\u6838 \u3002<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u662f\u6307\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u5728\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/a>B\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387<\/a>\u3002\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/a>\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1aP\uff08A|B\uff09\uff0c\u8bfb\u4f5c\u201c\u5728B\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0bA\u7684\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u51b3\u7b56\u6811<\/a>\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u8c2c\u8bba\u662f\u5047\u8bbe P(A|B) \u5927\u81f4\u7b49\u4e8e P(B|A)\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6John Allen Paulos \u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u300a\u6570\u5b66\u76f2\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\u533b\u751f\u3001\u5f8b\u5e08\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u53d7\u8fc7\u5f88\u597d\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u975e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u72af\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7528\u5b9e\u6570\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6982\u7387\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u907f\u514d\u3002<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\u4e2d\u6587\u540d<\/dt>\n
\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/dd>\n
\u5916\u6587\u540d<\/dt>\n
Conditional probability<\/dd>\n
\u5206\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u7c7b<\/dt>\n
\u6570\u5b66<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n
\n
\u8868\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u793a<\/dt>\n
P\uff08A|B\uff09<\/dd>\n
\u8ba1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u7b97<\/dt>\n
\u51b3\u7b56\u6811<\/dd>\n
\u5b9a\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u7406<\/dt>\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

\u76ee\u5f55<\/h2>\n
\n
    \n
  1. 1<\/span>\u00a0\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n
  2. 2<\/span>\u00a0\u57fa\u672c\u5b9a\u7406<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      \n
    1. 3<\/span>\u00a0\u7edf\u8ba1\u72ec\u7acb\u6027<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n
    2. 4<\/span>\u00a0\u4e92\u65a5\u6027<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
        \n
      1. 5<\/span>\u00a0\u5176\u5b83<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n
      2. 6<\/span>\u00a0\u8457\u540d\u8c2c\u8bba<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/div>\n
        \n

        \u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5<\/h2>\n

        \u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/div>\n

        \u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u662f\u6307\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u5728\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/a>B\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387<\/a>\u3002\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/a>\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1aP\uff08A|B\uff09\uff0c\u8bfb\u4f5c\u201c\u5728B\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0bA\u7684\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002\u82e5\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6A\uff0cB\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \u3002<\/b><\/div>\n

        \u6982\u7387\u6d4b\u5ea6<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u00a0B<\/i>\u00a0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u00a0P<\/i>(B<\/i>) > 0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u00a0Q<\/i>(A<\/i>) =\u00a0P<\/i>(A<\/i>\u00a0|\u00a0B<\/i>) \u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\u00a0A<\/i>\u00a0\u4e0a\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u00a0Q<\/i>\u00a0\u5c31\u662f\u6982\u7387\u6d4b\u5ea6\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u00a0P<\/i>(B<\/i>) = 0\uff0cP<\/i>(A<\/i>\u00a0|\u00a0B<\/i>) \u6ca1\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002 \u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u51b3\u7b56\u6811\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u00a0[1]<\/sup><\/a><\/div>\n
        \u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u8868\u793a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002A<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u7684\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u8868\u793a\u4e3a P(AB) \u6216\u8005P<\/i>(A<\/i>,B<\/i>),\u6216\u8005P\uff08A\u2229B\uff09\u3002\u00a0[2]<\/sup><\/a><\/div>\n
        \u8fb9\u7f18\u6982\u7387<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u662f\u67d0\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u5176\u5b83\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u8fb9\u7f18\u6982\u7387\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u5f97\u5230\u7684\uff1a\u5728\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u4e2d\uff0c\u628a\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5408\u5e76\u6210\u5176\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5168\u6982\u7387\u800c\u6d88\u5931\uff08\u5bf9\u79bb\u6563\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf<\/a>\u7528\u6c42\u548c\u5f97\u5168\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fde\u7eed\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7528\u79ef\u5206\u5f97\u5168\u6982\u7387\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79f0\u4e3a\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316<\/b><\/a>\uff08marginalization<\/b>\uff09\u3002A<\/i>\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u6982\u7387\u8868\u793a\u4e3aP<\/i>(A<\/i>)\uff0cB<\/i>\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u6982\u7387\u8868\u793a\u4e3aP<\/i>(B<\/i>)\u3002<\/div>\n
        \n
        \"\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f\"<\/a>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f<\/span><\/div>\n

        \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e2dA<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u56e0\u679c<\/a>\u6216\u8005\u65f6\u95f4\u987a\u5e8f<\/a>\u5173\u7cfb\u3002A<\/i>\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5148\u4e8eB<\/i>\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e8c\u8005\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u3002A<\/i>\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4B<\/i>\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e8c\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/a>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002[3]<\/sup><\/a><\/div>\n

        <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/div>\n
        \n

        \u57fa\u672c\u5b9a\u7406<\/h2>\n

        \u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/div>\n

        \u5b9a\u74061<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u8bbeA\uff0cB \u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e14A\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5219\u79f0<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \u4e3a\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u5730\uff0c<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \uff0c\u4e14\u5b83\u6ee1\u8db3\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a<\/p><\/div>\n

        \uff081\uff09\u975e\u8d1f\u6027\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u89c4\u8303\u6027\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u53ef\u5217\u53ef\u52a0\u6027\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u5b9a\u74062<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u8bbeE \u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u03a9 \u4e3a\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0cA\uff0cB \u4e3a\u4efb\u610f\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8bbeP(A)>0\uff0c\u79f0<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \u4e3a\u5728\u201c\u4e8b\u4ef6A \u53d1\u751f\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u4e8b\u4ef6B \u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n

        \u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e58\u6cd5\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u4efb\u610f\u6709\u7a77\u591a\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65f6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u8bbe<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \uff0c<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \uff0c\u2026<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \u4e3a\u4efb\u610fn \u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08n\u22652\uff09\u4e14<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \uff0c\u5219<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \u5b9a\u74063(\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f<\/a>)<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\uff08\u5b8c\u5907\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\/\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u5212\u5206\uff09<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u8bbeB1\uff0cB2\uff0c\u2026Bn\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e8b\u4ef6,\u82e5<\/div>\n
        \uff081\uff09<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \uff082\uff09B1\u222aB2\u222a\u2026\u222aBn=\u03a9<\/div>\n
        \u5219\u79f0B1\uff0cB2\uff0c\u2026Bn\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4\u03a9\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u6216\u79f0\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4\u03a9 \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5907\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u5b9a\u7406\uff08\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f\uff09\uff1a<\/div>\n
        \u8bbe\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n

        \u662f\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4\u03a9 \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u4e14P\uff08Bi\uff09>0\uff08i=1\uff0c2\uff0c\u2026n\uff09<\/p><\/div>\n

        \u5219\u5bf9\u4efb\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6B\uff0c\u6709<\/p>\n
        \u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \u5b9a\u74064(\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f<\/a>)<\/b><\/div>\n
        \u8bbeB1\uff0cB2\uff0c\u2026Bn\u2026\u662f\u4e00\u5b8c\u5907\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\uff0c\u5219\u5bf9\u4efb\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6A\uff0cP\uff08A\uff09>0\uff0c\u6709<\/div>\n
        \n
        \"\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/div>\n
        \n

        \u7edf\u8ba1\u72ec\u7acb\u6027<\/h2>\n

        \u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/div>\n

        \u5f53\u4e14\u4ec5\u5f53<\/a>\u4e24\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6A<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u6ee1\u8db3<\/div>\n
        P(A\u2229B)=P(A)P(B)<\/div>\n
        \u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u624d\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u5404\u81ea\u6982\u7387\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u4e58\u79ef\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6A<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u6709<\/div>\n
        P(A|B)=P(A)<\/div>\n
        \u4ee5\u53ca<\/div>\n
        P(B|A)=P(B)<\/div>\n
        \u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679cA<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48A<\/i>\u5728B<\/i>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662fA<\/i>\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b\u540c\u6837\uff0cB<\/i>\u5728A<\/i>\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662fB<\/i>\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/div>\n
        \n

        \u4e92\u65a5\u6027<\/h2>\n

        \u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/div>\n

        \u5f53\u4e14\u4ec5\u5f53A<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u6ee1\u8db3<\/div>\n
        P(A\u2229B)=0<\/div>\n
        \u4e14P(A)\u22600\uff0cP(B)\u22600<\/div>\n
        \u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cA<\/i>\u4e0eB<\/i>\u662f\u4e92\u65a5<\/a>\u7684\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/div>\n
        P(A|B)=0<\/div>\n
        P(B|A)=0<\/div>\n
        \u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679cB<\/i>\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8eA<\/i>\u4e0d\u80fd\u548cB<\/i>\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u573a\u5408\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48A<\/i>\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u96f6\uff1b\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679cA<\/i>\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48B<\/i>\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002<\/div>\n
        <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/div>\n
        \n

        \u5176\u5b83<\/h2>\n

        \u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/div>\n

        \u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0cP(B)>0<\/div>\n
        \u90a3\u4e48Q(A)=P(A|B)\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e0a\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u51fd\u6570Q\u5c31\u662f\u6982\u7387\u6d4b\u5ea6<\/a>\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u5982\u679cP(B)=0\uff0cP(A|B)\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002<\/div>\n
        <\/a><\/a><\/a><\/div>\n
        \n

        \u8457\u540d\u8c2c\u8bba<\/h2>\n

        \u7f16\u8f91<\/a><\/div>\n

        \u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u8c2c\u8bba<\/a>\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u00a0P<\/i>(A<\/i>|B<\/i>) \u5927\u81f4\u7b49\u4e8e\u00a0P<\/i>(B<\/i>|A<\/i>)\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6John Allen Paulos \u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u300a\u6570\u5b66\u76f2\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\u533b\u751f\u3001\u5f8b\u5e08\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u53d7\u8fc7\u5f88\u597d\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u975e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u72af\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7528\u5b9e\u6570\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6982\u7387\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u6570\u636e<\/a>\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u907f\u514d\u3002<\/div>\n
        P<\/i>(A<\/i>|B<\/i>) \u4e0e\u00a0P<\/i>(B<\/i>|A<\/i>)\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5982\u4e0b\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/div>\n
        <\/i>P<\/i>(B<\/i>|A<\/i>)=P<\/i>(A<\/i>|B<\/i>)P(B)\/P(A)<\/div>\n
        \u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u865a\u6784\u4f46\u5199\u5b9e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0cP<\/i>(A<\/i>|B<\/i>) \u4e0e\u00a0P<\/i>(B<\/i>|A<\/i>)\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u660e\u663e\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u82e5\u60f3\u5206\u8fa8\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u65e9\u671f\u6cbb\u7597\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4e00\u5927\u7fa4\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5176\u76ca\u5904\u660e\u663e\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u68c0\u9a8c\u884c\u4e3a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u5f15\u8d77\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u68c0\u51fa\u5047\u9633\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\uff1a\u82e5\u6709\u4e2a\u672a\u5f97\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5374\u5728\u521d\u68c0\u65f6\u88ab\u8bef\u68c0\u4e3a\u5f97\u75c5\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u82e6\u607c\u70e6\u95f7\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u7eed\u5230\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\u4ed6\u5e76\u672a\u5f97\u75c5\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u5c31\u7b97\u5728\u544a\u77e5\u4ed6\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u4eba\u540e\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u6709\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u6700\u9002\u5408\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u673a\u7387\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u5047\u8bbe\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u67091%\u7684\u4eba\u7f79\u60a3\u6b64\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u9009\u51fa\u4efb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u60a3\u75c5\u4ee5disease\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u4ee5well\u8868\u793a\uff1a<\/div>\n
        P<\/i>(disease) = 1% = 0.01 and\u00a0P<\/i>(well) = 99% = 0.99. \u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u52a8\u4f5c\u5b9e\u65bd\u5728\u672a\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u65f6\uff0c\u67091%\u7684\u673a\u7387\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u5047\u9633\u6027\uff08\u9633\u6027\u4ee5positive\u8868\u793a\uff09\u3002\u610f\u5373\uff1a<\/div>\n
        P<\/i>(positive | well) = 1%\uff0c\u800c\u4e14P<\/i>(negative | well) = 99%. \u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u52a8\u4f5c\u5b9e\u65bd\u5728\u60a3\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u65f6\uff0c\u67091%\u7684\u673a\u7387\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u5047\u9634\u6027\uff08\u9634\u6027\u4ee5negative\u8868\u793a\uff09\u3002\u610f\u5373\uff1a<\/div>\n
        P<\/i>(negative | disease) = 1%\u4e14P<\/i>(positive | disease) = 99%\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u7531\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u77e5\uff1a<\/div>\n
        \u662f\u6574\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e2d\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u4e14\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e3a\u9634\u6027\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        P(positive|disease) = 99% \u662f\u6574\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e2d\u5f97\u75c5\u3001\u4e14\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u662f\u6574\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e2d\u88ab\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5047\u9633\u6027\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u662f\u6574\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e2d\u88ab\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5047\u9634\u6027\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f97\u51fa\uff1a<\/div>\n
        \u662f\u6574\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e2d\u88ab\u6d4b\u51fa\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        P(disease|positive) = 50% \u662f\u67d0\u4eba\u88ab\u6d4b\u51fa\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u771f\u7684\u5f97\u4e86\u75c5\u7684\u673a\u7387\u3002<\/div>\n
        \u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u8f7b\u6613\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa P(positive|disease)=99% \u4e0e P(disease|positive)=50% \u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u662f\u4f60\u5f97\u4e86\u75c5\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u68c0\u51fa\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u673a\u7387\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u662f\u4f60\u88ab\u68c0\u51fa\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u771f\u5f97\u4e86\u75c5\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u673a\u7387\u3002\u7531\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u4f8b\u4e2d\u6240\u9009\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\uff1a\u88ab\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u534a\u6570\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5047\u9633\u6027\u3002\u00a0[4]<\/sup><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387 \u7f16\u8f91 \u672c\u8bcd\u6761\u7531\u201c\u79d1\u666e\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[121],"class_list":["post-1124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-value_docs","tag-05-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1124\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/i007.cc\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}