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\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740<\/a><\/p>\n
\n

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\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u6301\u6709\u67d0\u4e2a\u524d\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff08prior
\nbelief\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u6d4b\u83b7\u5f97\u7edf\u8ba1\u8bc1\u636e\uff08evidence\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e00\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u4e00\u81f4\u63a8\u65ad\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u8be5\u9648\u8ff0\u7684\u300c\u5408\u7406\u6027\u300d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u540e\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff08posterior belief\uff09\u6765\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8868\u5f81\u89c2\u6d4b\u540e\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u72b6\u6001\uff08state of knowledge\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6982\u7387\u63a8\u65ad\u6240\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e00\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u4f53\u7cfb\u8d4b\u4e88\u7279\u5b9a\u8bba\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u6570\u6240\u8868\u5f81\u7684\u8bba\u65ad\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\uff08measure of plausibility\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5141\u8bb8\u89c2\u6d4b\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u5bf9\u67d0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6216\u77e5\u8bc6\u72b6\u6001\u5c31\u662f\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u300c\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u300d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u72b6\u6001\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u53d8\u91cf\u53d6\u5404\u79cd\u503c\u6240\u8d4b\u4e88\u7684\u300c\u5408\u7406\u6027\u300d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\uff1a\u300a\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u6c89\u601d\u5f55\u300b<\/p>\n

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